The 2026 offseason saw record-level changes at head coach, matching the mark set in 2022 with ten new NFL skippers . In this cycle, future Hall of Famers John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, and oh-so-closers like Sean McDermott stood out as especially surprising. With these firings, it looks like the NFL is beginning to adopt the trend seen in other professional sports. A disturbing trend for current NFL head coaches, this spate of firings reflects a seismic shift in expectations (skyrocketing…) and patience (plummeting…) in professional sports.

 

The 2019 NBA champion Toronto Raptors let then Head Coach Nick Nurse go in 2023, despite leading the team to their only NBA championship. Frank Vogel, who took the Lakers to the promised land in 2020 was fired in 2022. Same story for Mike Budenholzer who architected an historic 2021 campaign in Milwaukee only to be summarily released two years later. Mike Malone, who willed the Nuggets to their lone championship in 2023 was terminated last April. For the most part these dismissals have come not after teams fall off from championship-caliber play, but after simply not reclaiming championships year after year. Many of these (extremely) successful coaches were fired following playoff runs. New York dumped Tom Thibodeau after taking the Knicks to the Eastern Conference Finals, the team’s deepest playoff run in the last twenty five years.

 

The trend to hit reset on head coaches the moment adversity strikes (and often when it doesn’t…) has also infected Hockey and Baseball. In 2018 Gerald Gallant led the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their first season and was fired in the middle of the 2020 season. Despite leading the Bruins to the Cup Final in 2019, and never failing to make the playoffs, Bruce Cassidy was fired in 2022 following a first-round playoff exit. Following a slow start, in May of 2025 Bud Black was fired despite being the winningest manager in Rockies history. It was a similar story with 2023 AL Manager of the Year Brandon Hyde who skippered the Orioles to back-to-back postseason trips and was pink-slipped in May of 2025. 

 

It's not a complicated story. Teams want to win NOW. The Steelers are a case study, parting ways with lock-down future Hall of Famer Mike Tomlin whose consistently ‘good enough’ was not good enough. Tomlin famously never led the Steelers to a losing record, always making the most out of less than ideal rosters. The Steelers crystal ball fortune teller told them it would be riskier to hang on to Tomlin than keep one of the best coaches of all time - we’ll see how that turns out. Even this foundational move was not as polarizing as another shocking personnel decision that came out of the AFC North. While the Steelers haven’t been true contenders for some time, year after year under Harbaugh the Ravens were a legitimate threat to come out of the AFC. Despite being on the cusp of greatness for the past five years, the Ravens parted ways with their legendary coach following an 8-9 campaign in 2025. The Ravens became a powerhouse because of Harbaugh's unique ability to develop talent and cultivate a winning culture. Sean McDermott’s dismissal reveals eerily similar themes. Like the Ravens, the Bills have been a serious threat to win the AFC for the last five years. The generational pairing of 2024 MVP Josh Allen with McDermott’s unique leadership style had fanned the desperate hopes of millions of Bills Fans that they would finally take a Lombardi Trophy home. Fired following a 33-30 loss to Denver in the Divisional round, the message was clear–Buffalo’s front office was done being a bride’s maid.

 

What this all points to are tightening standards in the NFL. Everyone seems to have gotten the memo that there is a new timeline for success under any particular head coach. While there seems to be some baseline variation depending on current team standing, the timeline generally looks the same. For bottom dwellers new hires may get two to three years to show significant strides with key personnel and provide high quality games. After this probationary period, coaches are expected to be consistently in the playoffs. Once they get there for the first time, the stakes rise precipitously. Any backslide instantly puts the head coach on the hot seat. Expectations are clear - keep making deeper runs into playoffs. Consistency is not enough.The ultimate goal is winning championships. Annual first or second round exits won't be tolerated. And, if a coach ever does win a championship, it doesn’t get any easier. The pressure amps up for repeat championships. Failure to sustain championship-level contention immediately puts even future HoFers on the hot seat.

 

This is the standard NFL timeline. But, for teams like the Ravens and Bills other factors are also in play. Both teams have an extra layer of penetrating desperation to win now due to their unique levels of roster talent. Both employ generational MVPs at QB, the Ravens and Bills have a closing Superbowl window, and the repeated playoff exits have amplified the window’s sound.

 

Fitting in a Head Coach to match up with a team's championship window is an accelerating trend across the professional sports landscape. Relentless need to ‘win while we can’ pressures underlie many of the recent headline dismissals and reflect the growing lack of patience in sports. 

 

The open question is whether this short-term mentality is likely to lead to glory or the continued agony of defeat. We certainly haven’t seen the Raptors or Bucks again astride the podium. Nor have we again seen the Nuggets bring home a Larry O’Brian to Denver. However, Mike Brown’s Knicks currently hold a 2-1 lead in their first finals in twenty-five years…..though Wemby et al may yet have something to say about Brown’s future as a Knickerbocker.

 

We just don’t know if these seemingly erratic decisions will pay off, or under what conditions they’re likely to. Regardless, what's clear is that we’re in a new era in the NFL. In an increasingly analytics/results driven business, feelings and emotions are put on hold. All time greats are kicked to the curb. Fan favorites are cast aside. Warriors who’ve devoted years of their lives to an organization are unceremoniously shown the door.

 

The gross truth is that at the end of every season there are 31 failures. To avoid this fate, teams are becoming increasingly cutthroat. Expect this trend to only increase in the coming years.